Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 15.202328 17.269288 19.631535 22.557207 26.120163 30.366964 35.886640
2025-06-01 12.448679 14.993280 18.156324 22.463434 28.317622 36.222149 48.125515
2025-06-08 10.667035 13.315220 16.784194 21.808459 29.168534 40.040765 58.383458
2025-06-15 9.603949 12.336778 16.072554 21.770293 30.677705 44.952492 71.812753
2025-06-22 8.497843 11.133888 14.846154 20.720939 30.354468 46.781090 80.513693
2025-06-29 7.581414 10.087366 13.699870 19.587990 29.627607 47.663122 87.648407
2025-07-06 6.917318 9.334633 12.895369 18.861843 29.421360 49.385428 97.240289
2025-07-13 7.029298 9.725496 13.852989 21.126433 34.928405 63.744072 144.877552
2025-07-20 6.799210 9.568778 13.922749 21.872754 37.742355 73.464292 188.167134
2025-07-27 6.344367 9.021033 13.297535 21.279281 37.729088 76.612749 213.263537
2025-08-03 6.166819 8.897764 13.363059 21.966571 40.554886 87.893551 280.399040
2025-08-10 5.845056 8.514944 12.947676 21.672548 41.141311 93.398264 330.547375
2025-08-17 5.531230 8.138131 12.535548 21.386875 41.829848 99.957050 399.649099
2025-08-24 5.274321 7.839560 12.238153 21.301190 43.012976 108.765717 502.455052
2025-08-31 4.969933 7.439323 11.722020 20.692182 42.749066 112.702244 583.501271
2025-09-07 4.769682 7.204291 11.488980 20.656687 43.988118 122.758164 751.156022
2025-09-14 4.466572 6.772901 10.857775 19.680012 42.477534 121.660081 807.404049
2025-09-21 4.176332 6.350055 10.217207 18.624046 40.583000 118.411557 834.558775
2025-09-28 3.953160 6.034932 9.762925 17.946402 39.668426 119.051860 922.594828
2025-10-05 4.068863 6.326102 10.491720 20.057576 47.462036 164.044296 2213.056861
2025-10-12 4.014984 6.307002 10.609772 20.751982 51.160903 193.607010 4097.360373
2025-10-19 3.838306 6.052943 10.237461 20.199845 50.602032 198.627839 5192.534537
2025-10-26 3.788419 6.030973 10.335736 20.839227 54.339627 234.584161 11904.932943